Corona Update

BurnieM

Well travelled
Just did some rough numbers based on the current US CDC numbers and the fact that cases and deaths are doubling every 3 days.

By 16 April the US will have 8.5 million cases and assuming the same percentage rate is maintained over 100,000 deaths due to COVID-19.
If medical resources start to get overwhelmed then the death rate goes up not just from COVID-19 but other illnesses that require respiration resources as well.

Hopefully the lockdowns and social isolation can reduce this rate somewhat but we will have to see.

Note that in Italy the cases are doubling every 2 days and to make it worse 30% of their medical staff have the virus.

- all information here taken from government department health websites. You may want to check it yourself.
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TN_twowheeladdict

Well travelled
Location
Tennessee
Just did some rough numbers based on the current US CDC numbers and the fact that cases and deaths are doubling every 3 days.

By 16 April the US will have 8.5 million cases and assuming the same percentage rate is maintained over 100,000 deaths due to COVID-19.
If medical resources start to get overwhelmed then the death rate goes up not just from COVID-19 but other illnesses that require respiration resources as well.

Hopefully the lockdowns and social isolation can reduce this rate somewhat but we will have to see.

Note that in Italy the cases are doubling every 2 days and to make it worse 30% of their medical staff have the virus.

- all information here taken from government department health websites. You may want to check it yourself.
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Only time will tell.

1297
 

sam2019

Well travelled
By 16 April the US will have 8.5 million cases and assuming the same percentage rate is maintained over 100,000 deaths due to COVID-19.
This meshes with the 0.3% death rate continuously measured in Germany, a 3 time higher death rate than the common flu:

The CDC website states what has become commonly accepted and widely reported in the lay and scientific press: annually "about 36 000 [Americans] die from flu"
question is: does this count as a "pandemic" with all the political and economical repercussions or is it rather a very bad flu?

in this context this may be of interest:

 

Eatmore Mudd

Moderator
Staff member
Just did some rough numbers based on the current US CDC numbers and the fact that cases and deaths are doubling every 3 days.

By 16 April the US will have 8.5 million cases and assuming the same percentage rate is maintained over 100,000 deaths due to COVID-19.
If medical resources start to get overwhelmed then the death rate goes up not just from COVID-19 but other illnesses that require respiration resources as well.

Hopefully the lockdowns and social isolation can reduce this rate somewhat but we will have to see.

Note that in Italy the cases are doubling every 2 days and to make it worse 30% of their medical staff have the virus.

- all information here taken from government department health websites. You may want to check it yourself.
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That alls possible but there are some strong modifiers to take into consideration.

We've had longer to get ready on the personal level than Italy did.
The Northern hemisphere is coming into summer. Because of the tilt of the earth relative to the sun UV rays have less distance to travel through the atmosphere I E a straighter shot and are less filtered and stronger when they get to the surface and kill germs. You already know this so I'm only posting it as reminder for other folks.

There is a US company that has a COVID-19 test kit that gets results in minutes not days and it's cheap, I will ask If I can say more about it.

The big gov wants to use one of those special war time authorizations to have ventilators, PPE and medicines cranked out in by non traditional makers like tanks and rifles were in WWII. PPE is easy, ventilators are just fancified air pumps and some parts of medicine production can be subbed out and there is at least one pharma plant that I know of in mothballs waiting to be dusted off.
 

Wintrup

Well travelled
Location
Cumbria UK
The UV aspect is something I'd not considered, makes sense though. In Cumbria we're having a few sunny days and I was out sunbathing yesterday, so exposed surfaces will get a decent UV hit.

I was just listening an junior doctor explaining the COVID 19 signature on x-rays, a unilateral deep inflamation of the lungs. Radiography is a good diagnostic tool, so I trust that the increase in numbers are not conflated with other pathogens yet.

So now we're on lock down proper. How long this lasts and what it's going to do to employment and the economy is a big concern. What I'd like to see is what the Russians did: build a few isolated hospitals for COVID 19 cases and get this lock down over with quickly. I'd want to see isolation by age group, with the younger generations exempted faster and back at work. This will prevent many business from folding and will be far less harmful to employment and the economy. Such hospitals can be used for all those respiratory emergenices we routinely see each winter or be designed to have other functions, or dismantled a the materials repurposed. But then I don't think this is what it seems, so practical solutions will be by-passed in favour of ongoing panic and hysteria. This guy is going to need a bed soon.
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Wintrup

Well travelled
Location
Cumbria UK
This is making less sense by the day. The UK government has suddenly gone full nanny state with directives, much of the world in lockdown and at Heathrow airport this:
 

sam2019

Well travelled
These could be repatriating groups. Germany has chartered 2 airbus A380s today and flown out 600 german and other eu citizens from delhi. these are the only flights allowed, they came in empty of course. so I guess a similar picture could have been shot at one or two gates there too.

as of the embassy worker who was part of the evacuation it was quite a trip just from rishikesh to delhi which is only 260km and 1 state border but police has checkpoints everywhere and is aggressively enforcing the no-travel policy. officially you can only leave your house from 7am to 10am to buy stuff.

some poor shmucks have been evicted from their hotels because they are almost empty now and cant afford to keep running with just 1 or 2 guests ...

(I am ok because I live in a house where the owners also live so no danger of eviction - but today a bunch of government officials showed up and took everyones age, name and phone no., I wonder what that was good for)

internet has gone to a crawl because everyone now is watching youtube all day long on lines that have been poor from the start.

I wonder how this will play out if it will be extended another month or so which it almost certainly will be.
 

Wintrup

Well travelled
Location
Cumbria UK
These could be repatriating groups.
Apparently not, according to what I'm hearing it's business as usual . Checking airport arrivals looks to confirm this. It's madness. Shutting down the country while allowing in potential vectors unchecked makes no sense whatsoever. Either the government are completely incompetent or they want this to continue to worsen.
 

Roy Gavin

Well travelled
A government led by Boris completely incompetent, sounds like you got what you voted for.
Here in the state of South Australia brothels and weed are freely available, your suppliers just have to be paying off the right people.
Same as most everywhere in the whole goddamn world!
 

Wintrup

Well travelled
Location
Cumbria UK
Yeah sure, things would be so different if we had steely, man's man Corbyn and his coterie of cat ladies and quota hires. But then again I don't see politicians as anything but policy sellers, not policy makers. They can never stray far from the default neo-liberal path, they just offer different flavours.
I'm not sure of anything, we're swamped with conflicting information, but my hunch is we're in some sort of world-wide reset and the virus is just a pretext. Time will tell.
 

Roy Gavin

Well travelled
I didn't say things would be any better with the alternative, but I doubt if they would be any worse.
And lets not forget that Boris was elected on the basis of, and intended to govern, on a pack of lies.
But a pack of lies won't do him much good in the face of a pandemic, not even the Daily Telegraph, or the Daily Boris , as it now known, will be able to protect him.
Your nation elected a joke to lead them, but I doubt if many are laughing now.
FWIW I still have a British passport and voted in the last election, in case you wondered
 
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